Canadian business leaders are worried about the economic impact of Trump. As the 2024 US election is quickly approaching, The Business Monitor explored the expected economic impact of both Harris and Trump.
Key findings in this release:
- By a wide margin, Trump would have a much higher negative impact on the Canadian economy as compared with Harris.
- Fewer than half, however, say Harris would have a positive impact on the economy.
Large numbers of Canadian business leaders say Trump will have a negative impact on the Canadian economy.
When asked what impact either Trump or Harris would have on the Canadian economy, almost three-quarters of business leaders say Trump would have a negative impact.
About half as many say Harris will have a negative impact. Neither candidate gets a ringing endorsement but almost half think Harris would have a positive impact on the Canadian economy.
The expected economic impact of Trump and Harris varies greatly by region.
Looking at the number of businesses who expect a positive economic impact, there are large regional variations.
- All regions outside of Alberta and the Prairies strongly side with Harris to provide a positive impact on the Canadian economy.
- In Alberta, the reverse is true.
- The Prairies see the impact as more or less the same whether it is Trump or Harris.
- Quebec is the only region where a majority expect a positive economic impact from either candidate.
Discussion
Outside of Alberta and the Prairies, there are widespread expectations across Canadian businesses that the election of Donald Trump in the upcoming US presidential election would be bad for the Canadian economy.
This is no doubt related to Trump’s campaign rhetoric around protectionism. In recent years, Canada’s exports to the US have increased significantly from just under $400 billion in 2016 to almost $600 billion in 2023, making up 77% of all exports from Canada. Were Trump to be elected and follow through on his election position, it would indeed spell trouble for the Canadian economy.
Lastly, neither candidate receiving a ringing endorsement is likely tied to the fact that a strong majority of Canadian business leaders think the Canadian economy is too dependent on the US economy. This will be covered in next week’s release – there is a good deal of trepidation about how closely the Canadian economy is tied to the American economy.
Methodology
These results come from the latest edition of The Business Monitor which is powered by the Modus Business Panel – the only purpose-built, 100% probability-based business panel in Canada.
Because the Modus Business Panel is built entirely using random probability sampling, it is valid to cite the margin of error for this survey. The survey is based on a representative sample of 652 Canadian enterprises and has a margin of error of +/- 3.8% points, 95 times out of 100. The survey data was collected from August 29 to September 16 and is weighted by enterprise size and region based the latest Statistics Canada data.