The most recent edition of the Business Monitor features an update on our regular tracking of economic and business confidence. The Business Monitor is Canada’s only B2B omnibus.
The key highlights in this release include:
- Economic confidence is at its highest level in over five years.
- Economic outlook has also improved, although it remain negative on balance.
- Business confidence has also improved.
A more detailed presentation is in the report, including data tables.
For the first time in over 5 years, Canadian economic confidence is not deeply in negative territory.
Economic confidence has seen a large upswing since the winter. There has been an increase in positive sentiment and an even stronger downswing in negative ratings. Businesses are now in neutral territory despite the flurry of threats and tariffs levelled from south of the border over the past few years.
This result is notably better than the economic confidence of the Canadian public, measured more or less concurrently with this survey.
The economic confidence has improved to levels not seen since before the re-election of Trump.
Positive outlook has more than doubled since Trump was sworn into office, although it remains negative on balance.
Business confidence has grown with the economic upturn over the first six months of the year, but remains only marginally positive.
Apart from the boost provided by the initial vaccine roll-out, post-COVID business confidence has remained decidedly mixed.
Discussion
It may seem counter-intuitive to have economic confidence rising in the midst of the worst US-Canada trade relations seen in decades. As noted by observers, however, the impacts of Trump’s tariffs are somewhat narrow and localized – with the biggest impacts being felt by manufacturing.
The most recent report on economic output from Stats Can shows better than expected growth driven by increased business investment and exports, and confirms that manufacturing has been hardest hit. As this survey was conducted prior to the latest Stats Can update, its results are confirmed by our findings. Economic confidence, whether current or at a one-year outlook, is better than it has been in many years. The same can be said for business confidence, though to a lesser extent.
This large improvement in economic confidence cannot entirely be tied to broader economic performance; the results on economic confidence are beyond quarterly GDP upswings and downswings. This is happening in the context of tense negotiations with the U.S., one in which Canadian businesses are strongly supporting increased economic sovereignty and increased measures to diversify trade outside our southern neighbour–as has been the case for a few years now.
It will be important to continue monitoring this situation in the coming months, as Trump is a mercurial leader; he may yet relent or expand his attempts to damage Canada’s economy.
Methodology
The Business Monitor is powered by the Modus Business Panel – Canada’s only purpose-built, fully probability-based research panel.
The survey was conducted online using both email and SMS invitations/reminders, and completed via desktops, laptops, tablets and mobile devices. A total of 520 responses were gathered from Canadian managers and executives. As Modus Business Panel is 100% recruited using RDD probability-based telephone sampling, it is statistically valid to calculate the margin of error – it is plus or minus 4.3% at a 95% confidence interval.
The survey was conducted from August 12 to 26, 2026. We run surveys at the optimal timeframe for online surveys (~ two weeks) to avoid the early response bias of quick turnaround surveys. The data have been weighted by region and enterprise size using the latest population data from Statistics Canada.
